Thursday, October 13, 2005
Flu Pandemics
Flu pandemics happen on average three times every century, with two of those being fairly minor, but one dwarfing the others. Last century we had the major pandemic of the 1918 Spanish Flu, and the minor pandemics of 1958 Asian Flu and 1968 Hong Kong Flu.
That means that although the current Bird Flu H5N1 may go pandemic, it has a 2 in 3 chance of being of the minor variety. Time will tell.
Of course it's all about the numbers, so a breakdown of those previous pandemics is below:
(*) Source: Department of health
This time the worry is that the H5N1 strain is much more dangerous. The 1918 pandemic infected 40% to 50% of the world population, with about 12.5% of infected people dying - this is known as the Case Fatality Rate. So far in the outbreaks in Southeast Asia, the Case Fatality Rate for H5N1 is 50%.
That means that although the current Bird Flu H5N1 may go pandemic, it has a 2 in 3 chance of being of the minor variety. Time will tell.
Of course it's all about the numbers, so a breakdown of those previous pandemics is below:
| 1918 Spanish Flu | 1958 Asian Flu | 1968 Hong Kong Flu | |
| Est. global deaths | 50 million | 1 million | 1 million |
| Est. UK deaths | 250,000 | 33,000 | 30,000 |
This time the worry is that the H5N1 strain is much more dangerous. The 1918 pandemic infected 40% to 50% of the world population, with about 12.5% of infected people dying - this is known as the Case Fatality Rate. So far in the outbreaks in Southeast Asia, the Case Fatality Rate for H5N1 is 50%.
# posted by steve @ 9:28 am 
